June inflation data drops at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by congressional testimony from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Here's what to watch on a volatile Tuesday.

The Morning Setup: Pre-Market CPI Release

June CPI lands at 8:30 a.m. ET—one hour before the 10 a.m. market open. Economic data of this magnitude typically triggers futures movement and gap openings, so expect elevated volume at the bell. Headline CPI is expected to fall 0.1% month-over-month while rising 3.9% year-over-year—down from May's 4.2% annual rate. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy, is projected to rise 0.2% for the month and land at 2.85% annually—slightly above May's 2.9%. In plain terms: the headline print might look a bit softer, but the core measure could hold sticky. That mix creates ambiguity—and ambiguity breeds volatility.

Same-Day Testimony Adds Uncertainty

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to testify before the House Financial Services Committee on the same day. The timing matters. If CPI surprises hot or soft, Warsh's commentary could either reinforce or contradict the data narrative. Traders will be parsing every phrase for hints about rate-cut or rate-hike expectations.

Rate-Hike Odds Already Climbing

Implied market odds of a July rate hike have already climbed to 36–50% this week. That tells you the market is pricing in a real possibility of tighter policy ahead. A softer CPI could ease those odds; a hotter print could solidify them. For day traders, today's script is familiar: gaps at the open, volume surges in rate-sensitive sectors (bonds, financials, tech), and narrative shifts after the data and during Warsh's testimony. This is the kind of day where intraday ranges tend to expand and trending setups can develop quickly.