A key Trump-era tariff tool expires July 24 unless lawmakers act. The administration is already laying groundwork for replacement tariffs targeting forced labor and manufacturing overcapacity across 60 economies.

The Expiration Clock

Section 122 of the Trade Act gives the president broad authority to impose tariffs without congressional approval—authority that's been central to recent trade policy. But it comes with an expiration date: July 24, 2026. Unless Congress acts to extend it, that 10% global surcharge disappears, creating a significant gap in the tariff architecture that's defined market behavior for years.

What's Already Replacing It

The administration isn't waiting passively. According to the Atlantic Council's tariff tracker, the White House has already launched two major Section 301 investigations—a different legal tool that also allows broad tariff action. The first targets structural manufacturing overcapacity and represents more than 75% of US imports. The second focuses on forced-labor enforcement practices across 60 economies, with proposed rates of 10% to 12.5%.

In plain terms: even if Section 122 expires, tariff levels may not drop significantly. Instead, they'd shift to a different legal basis and potentially apply unevenly depending on specific countries and industries.

The Trade Deal Landscape

Separately, an EU-US deal capped tariffs at 15% and took effect July 1, replacing Section 122 duties for the European bloc. Meanwhile, the US declined to renew the USMCA trade agreement on July 1, though the existing pact remains in place with zero tariff preferences—a holding pattern that could shift depending on broader negotiations.

For importers and investors, the message is clear: tariff uncertainty runs through mid-2026 and beyond. Whether Congress extends Section 122 or the forced-labor and overcapacity investigations take the wheel, trade friction shows no signs of disappearing.